The Coupling of Green Finance and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Shenzhen under Low-Carbon Policy Using CCDM and PVAR Models

Abstract

Confronting global climate change and China's "Dual Carbon" goals, Shenzhen, a national low-carbon pilot city, presents a valuable case for studying the synergy between green finance and economic growth. Despite existing studies on green finance, the synergistic mechanisms within integrated policy frameworks remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by utilizing Shenzhen's macroeconomic, green finance, and carbon emissions data (2015-2024), this study employs a Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) and a Panel Vector Autoregression Model (PVAR) to analyze their dynamic coupling mechanism. Key findings include: (1) Exponential expansion of Shenzhen's green finance sector, evidenced by an 18% average annual growth in green credit balance and a 14-fold increase in green bond issuance. (2) Policy support and institutional innovation, identified through a "policy-market-technology-region" framework, are the primary drivers of coupling development, accounting for 42.3% of the effect. (3) Significant regional synergy, with the Qianhai Green Finance Reform Pilot Zone exhibiting a technology spillover coefficient of 0.78 to surrounding areas. This research offers a replicable policy paradigm for high-density cities pursuing high-quality, low-carbon economic development.